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Deep-moist convection in winter

Forecasting deep-moist convection and lightning in winter is challenging, partly because it occurs outside the typical season and partly because it forms in the environments characterized by marginal buoyancy. Despite weak CAPE, winter time convective storms often pose a considerable severe weather risk given their frequent collocation with strong vertical wind shear. In this presentation we explore different regimes under which ingredients come together and create marginal CAPE setups typical of winter. These include synoptically strongly-forced situations, elevated storms and the lake-effect over the European seas.

 Lecture slides...