Case Study: 02 - 03 August 1997

• I. Introduction and SatRep Diagnosis for 02 August 1997/06.00 UTC
  • Introduction
  • Overview of satellite imagery for 02 August 06.00 UTC
  • Key parameters on isobaric surfaces for 02 August 06.00 UTC
  • Relative streams and conveyor belts for 02 August 06.00 UTC
• II. Development of Upper Level Low and Rapid Cyclogenesis
  • Introduction for Upper Level Low and Rapid Cyclogenesis
  • Very Short Range Forecast from 02 August 06.00 UTC - 18.00 UTC
  • Development of cloud configurations during Very Short Range Forecast
• III. Diagnosis for 03 August 1997/00.00 UTC
  • Overview of satellite imagery for 03 August 00.00 UTC
  • Key parameters on isobaric surfaces for 03 August 00.00 UTC
  • Relative streams and conveyor belts for 03 August 00.00 UTC
  • Summary
• IV. Diagnosis for 03 August 1997/06.00 UTC
  • Overview of satellite imagery for 03 August 06.00 UTC
  • Key parameters on isobaric surfaces for 03 August 06.00 UTC
• V. Very Short Range Forecast from 03 August 1997/06.00 UTC - 18.00 UTC
  • Introduction for Very Short Range Forecast
  • Development of cloud configurations during Very Short Range Forecast for 03 August 06.00 UTC - 18.00 UTC
  • Diagnosis for 03 August 18.00 UTC with parameters on isentropic surfaces

02 - 03 August 1997 - Summary

Summarizing, one can say that two different upper level phenomena exist in this region:

• The jet streak with a PVA maximum in the left exit region - a phenomenon which is not only connected with the intensified cloudiness and weather over Ireland but possesses also the potential for further Rapid Cyclogenesis development;
• A small scale cut off low (Upper Level Low) immediately at the rear which is recognised by wet and dry upper level features and shows a somewhat different propagation direction indicated by a PVA maximum at 500 hPa.

While the development of a Rapid Cyclogenesis has stagnated, during the last 18 hours the development of an Upper Level Low was quite intensive. But the physical situation, especially on isentropic surfaces, cannot exclude the possibility of a Rapid Cyclogenesis development in the next time period.