Print Version

Table of Contents

Cloud Structure In Satellite Images

Upper Level Lows are relatively long-lived (mostly from 2 to 10 days) phenomena. Their life cycle consists of three stages:

  • Upper level trough
  • Tear-off
  • Cut-off
  • Final stage

1. Upper level trough stage

There is a pronounced upper level trough behind a frontal zone.

Appearance in the basic channels:

  • In IR10.8 images, a white or light grey cloud band is connected to the frontal zone on the leading side of the trough, while some thin white cloud stripes due to Cloud Fibres exist on the rearward side. There may possiblybe some convective white cells around the axis of the trough.
  • In VIS0.6 images, a white or light grey cloud band is connected to the front on the leading side of the trough. Some convective white cells may exist around the axis of the trough.
  • In WV6.2 images, light grey bands occur on the leading and rear part of the trough.

Appearance in the basic RGBs:

Airmass RGB:

The most important phenomenon here is the dark brown colour within the trough, indicating the cold and dry air there. Cloud bands and fibres at the boundaries of the trough, as well as possible cloud cells within the trough centre, are very similar to IR.

Dust RGB

The cloud free areas within the trough show blue to pinkish blue colours, while the cloud band at the leading side of the trough usually exhibits dark red colours, indicating thick ice cloud. If clouds exist at the rearward side, it can vary from dark red to black depending on the thickness of the ice clouds there. If there is already cold air cloudiness in the trough centre, this stage of the cut off process usually results in ochre cloud colours, indicating that the cloud-tops are low to mid-level. For cases over land in wintertime, this centre can also be filled by ochre mid-level cloud patches.

Legend: Cut off process: trough stage, Left: air mass RGB; right: dust RGB.

2. Tear-off

The bottom of the upper trough is detached from the main stream resulting in a closed circulation.

Appearance in the basic channels:

  • In IR10.8 images, a white to light grey cyclonically curved cloud band is on the leading side of the trough - possibly also on the rear side. Some white convective cells may occur between the bands.
  • In VIS0.6 images, a grey cyclonically curved cloud band exists on the leading side of the trough, possibly also on the rear side. Some white convective shells may occur between the bands.
  • In WV6.2 images, a grey cyclonically curved cloud band exists around the detaching low.

Appearance in the basic RGBs:

Airmass RGB

At this stage of the cut-off process, air mass composition makeup is the same as the trough stage before: dark brown colours in the centre are concentrated in the circle-like centre and cold air cloud (if it exists) is mostly overrun by this dry air, which results in a more ochre colour. Existing cloud bands at the boundaries are similar to those in the IR channel. Often the cloud band at the rear of the former trough is only weakly developed, or is not present at all.

Dust RGB

The same as before the cloud boundaries vary between ochre and dark red; the same is true for the clouds in the centre which often start to increase in thickness.

Legend: Cut off process: tear-off stage, Left: air mass RGB; right: dust RGB.

3. Cut-off stage

The Upper Level Low is separated from the main upper stream.

Appearance in the basic channels:

  • In IR10.8 and VIS0.6 images, white to light grey cyclonically curved cloud bands exist on the leading and rearward side of the low, later forming a spiral. Some white convestive cells may exist within it.
  • In WV6.2 images, a round area or a spiral of grey clouds exist, with some white cells on the leading side.

Appearance in the basic RGBs:

Airmass RGB:

In the cut-off stage the airmass RGB is a further development of the stage before. The most pronounced feature is the dark brown colour in the cold and dry centre.

Dust RGB

The most pronounced features are the dark red, thick ice cloud in the cloud band, which are spiralling around the cut off low centre. Cold clouds in this centre are now thick, demonstrated by the dark red colour for thick ice cloud.

Legend: Cut off process: cut-off stage, Left: air mass RGB; right: dust RGB.

4. Final stage

The Upper Level Low merges with the main stream, or dissolves slowly while being almost stationary.

Appearance in the basic channels:

  • In IR10.8 and VIS0.6 images there are light grey cyclonically curved stripes that merge with the white cloud band of a frontal zone.
  • In WV6.2 images there is a dark grey area that soon disappears under the light grey area of the frontal zone.

Cut-off processes can last several days. During this long development phase, cloud features can vary a bit from the ideal schematics or show only some features from it. In the two cases shown below, typical areas for cut-off processes over Europe are shown.

In the case of 4 - 7 May 2020 the cut-off process starts with a trough over Scandinavia which moves and develops into Central Europe. The trough and the tear off stage are accompanied by less distinct cloud features than those described for a well-developed case. However, the cut-off and final stage are very distinct.

4 - 7 May 2020: cut-off process: IR; cyan lines: Height contours 500 hPa.
u.l.: 4 May at 12 UTC trough stage; u.r.: 5 May at 3 UTC tear-off stage; l.l.: 6 May at 12 UTC cut-off stage; l.r.: 7 May at 12 UTC final stage.
*Note: click on the image to access image gallery (navigate using arrows on keyboard)

The second case which is from 12 - 14 May (and continued beyond this), starts with a trough over the Atlantic and during the cut-off process this shifts to the southeast with a very well-developed cut-off stage over Spain. All stages have very pronounced cloud features but a final stage cannot be observed - the cut-off feature lasts for several days longer and thereby moves southward out of the panel frame.

12 - 14 May 2020: cut-off process: IR; cyan lines: Height contours 400 hPa.
u.l.: 12 May at 15 UTC trough stage; u.r.: 13 May at 00 UTC tear-off stage; l.l.: 13 May at 15 UTC cut-off stage; l.r.: 14 May at 12 UTC advanced cut-off stage.*Note: click on the image to access image gallery (navigate using arrows on keyboard)

The case of 4 - 7 May 2020 is chosen for demonstrating the basic channels and the basic RGBs for the typical cut-off development stages.

Trough stage: 4 May 2020 at 12 UTC

Frontal cloud band at the southern leading side of the trough over Germany and Poland; some cloud cells and patches in the trough centre over south Sweden; no cloud system at the rear side of the trough.

beforeafter

beforeafter

Legend:
4 May 2020 at 12UTC: 1st row: IR (above) + HRV (below); 2nd row: WV (above) + Airmass RGB (below); 3rd row: Dust RGB (black arrows indicate the cloud band at the rear of the trough, as well as cold air cloudiness within the trough) + image gallery.
*Note: click on the Dust RGB image to access image gallery (navigate using arrows on keyboard).

IR A light grey to white cloud band exists at the southern leading side of the upper level trough. Some light grey clouds exist in the trough centre over Southern Sweden. No cloud system exists at the rear side of the trough - the next cloud system is far to the NW.
HRV A white cloud band at the leading side of the trough, with white cells in the trough centre over Sweden.
WV The whole area shows grey colours but not distinct band-like structures; darker grey colours exist in the trough centre over Sweden.
Airmass RGB Dark brown colours in the trough centre representing the cold and dry air; clouds at the leading side are overrun by cold air (blue colours) in the south and cold and dry air (brown colours) to the north.
Dust RGB A cloud band at the leading side is mostly ochre in colour, representing mid-level cloud. Some fibres also exist.

Tear-off stage: 5 May 2020 at 03 UTC

The cloud band at the leading edge of the torn-off low can be seen over Poland. Some cloud cells exist in the low centre over Southern Sweden and some fibrous clouds from the next system exist over Northern Norway.

beforeafter

5 May 2020 at 03UTC: 1st row: IR; 2nd row: WV (above) + Airmass RGB (below); 3rd row: Dust RGB + image gallery.
*Note: click on the Dust RGB image to access image gallery (navigate using arrows on keyboard).

IR All three cloud systems accompanying the leading side, the centre and the rearward side of the tear-off low, are white.
HRV Not available at this point of time.
WV Light grey colours on the cloudy areas, especially at the leading side; dark grey shades exist in the centre of the torn-off low; cyclonic rotation becomes visible.
Airmass RGB Dark brown colours partly in the tear-off low centre and above the cold air cloud; very bright cloud band at the leading side.
Dust RGB Dark red colours are the cloud band at the leading side of the tear-off low, indicating thick ice cloud; the same is true for small cold air clouds in the centre over Southern Sweden; the cloud free areas are mostly in pinkish blue, indicating higher humidity in the air near the ground below. Some greenish areas indicate thin mid-level cloud.

Cut-off stage: 6 May 2020 at 12 UTC

Two cloud bands spiral around the cut off low centre: the southern one developed from the frontal band at the rear side of the trough and the northern one developed within the cyclonic rotation, after cut off from cloudiness in the northeast. Some small cold air cells exist in the cut off low centre.

beforeafter

beforeafter

6 May 2020 at 12UTC: 1st row: IR (above) + HRV (below); 2nd row: WV (above) + Airmass RGB (below); 3rd row: Dust RGB + image gallery.
*Note: click on the Dust RGB image to access image gallery (navigate using arrows on keyboard)

IR Two cloud bands are cyclonically curved around the cut of low centre, with light grey to white grey shades; white small cells in the centre indicated by some light grey cloud patches.
HRV A white cloud band around - and white cloud cells within - the cut-off low centre; white low to mid-level cloud patches in the centre are very distinct in the HRV channels.
WV Cloud bands are white to light grey; the centre of the cut off low is dark grey.
Airmass RGB Bright cloud bands with similar appearance to those in the IR channel; blue colours accompanying the bands indicate the cold air. The cut-off low centre has dark brown colours indicating the cold and dry air there.
Dust RGB The two curved cloud bands are dark red over a large area, representing the thick ice cloud; the ochre colours indicate the mid-level water clouds which are partly in the cloud bands and partly in the cut off low centre.

The air below an Upper Level Low is potentially unstable, which leads to the so-called core convection and convective cloudiness. Over warm sea this convective development can be intensive. Contrary to this, the centre of an Upper Level Low over land is often overcast with low or middle level cloudiness with some convective cells embedded.

Other conceptual models that may look like an Upper Level Low in satellite images are Comma (see Comma) and Polar Low (see Polar Low). These can be separated from each other with the help of numerical fields, especially on the 500 hPa level.

Special investigation of DANA cases

DANA (Gota Fría) events over the Iberian Peninsula do not differ remarkably in their development process or their cloud appearance from the general descriptions and the examples of ULLs presented in the general chapter "Cloud Structures in Satellite Images". But they appear in a typical location with cloud systems typical of parts of this location and very often with very severe weather in specific areas. The name DANA refers to the cut off stage of the conceptual Model ULL which appears over the Iberian Peninsula and which is very often stationary for several days.

Below, some examples of DANA situations from investigations over the three years 2023–2025 are presented. Only those cases of ULLs in which the cut off stage over the Iberian Peninsula was stationary longer than 24 hours were counted as DANA cases; this happened for nine cases with durations between 24 and 68 hours of stationarity. In fact, there were at least five more instances of a ULL over the Iberian Peninsula but these crossed quickly within one day and/or affected only the south of Andalusia (for example the period 27–28 December 2025 in which heavy damage to property on the southern coast was reported).

The following figure shows six of the nine DANA cases.

Fig 1: DANA examples.
IR channel + height contours at 300 hPa:
Top row left: 26 May 2023, 00 UTC; top row right: 28 June 2024, 12 UTC; 2nd row left: 15 October 2024, 06 UTC; 2nd row right: 27 October 2024, 12 UTC; 3rd row left: 13 November 2024, 06 UTC; 3rd row right: 28 December 2025, 18 UTC.

What all these examples of DANA situations have in common is a cloud band or bandlike cloud systems on the leading side, located primarily over Spain, in some cases extending over the Mediterranean.

However, the whole development and decay process before and after the cut off stage—the DANA stage over Spain—takes place over much larger regions and during a much longer time period. The nine DANA cases from 2023 to November 2024 showed four typical origin regions and paths:

  1. A trough over the N, NW Atlantic with a cut off process over the Atlantic to the west of Portugal;
  2. A trough over the SW, W Atlantic with a cut off process west of Morocco and a north/north-eastward movement into the Iberian Peninsula;
  3. A (often) secondary trough over the British Isles with a cut off process over the Bay of Biscay and a southward movement into the Iberian Peninsula;
  4. A trough over southern Scandinavia with a cut off process over Denmark and a long south-westward movement into the Iberian Peninsula.

After a DANA event the typical decaying phase paths are:

  1. Westward over Portugal into the Atlantic and further westward with a long phase of synoptic modifications;
  2. Southward into Morocco, often with backward movement to the south of Spain;
  3. Eastward into the Mediterranean or south-eastward into North Africa; this often occurs for DANA situations with a quick crossing over the Iberian Peninsula and a tremendous intensification of the cut off low over the mid Mediterranean or North Africa.

For long-lasting DANA situations in particular, a "final stage" cannot easily be defined over short time period.

The case from 27–29 October 2024 is a typical example of a DANA situation and its development, and it is chosen here to be described in more detail.

This case has a special and dramatic importance for Spain because it led to a terrible weather catastrophe in the area of Valencia with more than 200 deaths.

It started with a trough stage west of the British Isles, which changed its form and elongation while moving south-eastward and arrived at the Iberian Peninsula in a trough stage on 26 October 2024 at 00 UTC. Within the next 12 hours it developed from a trough to a tear off and finally to a cut off stage directly over the centre of the Iberian Peninsula; the cut off / DANA stage could be observed on 27 October 2024 around noon.

The corresponding images and height fields can be seen in the figures below. Geopotential heights at 300 and 1000 hPa clearly show, during the whole cut off process, a deep upper-level low without any corresponding distinct low close to the surface.

Fig 2:
26 October 2024, 00UTC: trough stage; cyan: geopotential height contours.
Top row: IR with left: geopotential height at 300 hPa; right: geopotential height at 1000 hPa.
Lower left: airmass RGB with geopotential height at 300 hPa; lower right: Dust RGB with geopotential height at 300 hPa.

Fig 3:
26 October 2024, 12UTC: tear off stage; cyan: geopotential height contours.
Top row: IR with left: geopotential height at 300 hPa; right: geopotential height at 1000 hPa.
Lower left: airmass RGB with geopotential height at 300 hPa; lower right: dust RGB with geopotential height at 300 hPa.

Fig 4:
27 October 2024 at 12UTC: cut off stage—DANA; cyan: geopotential height contours.
Top row: IR with left: geopotential height at 300 hPa; right: geopotential height at 1000 hPa.
Lower left: airmass RGB with geopotential height at 300 hPa; lower right: dust RGB with geopotential height at 300 hPa.

During this cut off process over the Iberian Peninsula, cloud systems and finally cloud bands developed at the leading side of the DANA, which was in the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of Spain.

During all stages of development, the centre of the ULL/DANA is accompanied by dark brown colours in the airmass RGB, which represent the very dry and cold air protruding into upper-level heights from north and northwest into the Iberian Peninsula and becoming cut off there. The Dust RGB shows, with dark brown colours, that the developing cloud systems either at the leading border or within the centre of the DANA stage consist of thick ice cloud.

This special DANA situation remained after the cut off for rather a long time without any signs of weakening. It moved southward to North Africa—as is typical in many cases—and then moved back to the south of Spain. Over the whole period until 29 October, the southeastern parts of Spain were under the influence of varying cloud systems, which, in a warm and humid air mass, continuously changed its appearance in the RGB fields; they were also under the influence of increasingly high instability. In the late afternoon of 29 October 2024, the above-mentioned weather catastrophe with incredible flash floods occurred over the area of Valencia with the consequence of more than 200 deaths.

The figures below show these changes in the position of the ULL centre, the changes and new developments of cloud systems and the increase of instability represented by the Showalter index.

Fig 5:
Cut off stage—DANA. IR; height contours at 300 hPa; yellow/purple: Showalter Index.
Top left: 27 October 2024, 12UTC; top right: 28 October 2024, 12 UTC.
Lower left: 29 October 2024, 00 UTC; lower right: 29 October 2024, 12 UTC.


From 30 October at around noon a long decay phase of this DANA case started with a westward movement across Portugal far into the Atlantic where it changed its synoptic character. Therefore, it is not useful to show one date as representative of a typical final stage.

From all cases it can be seen that Portugal and Spain are in different positions in relation to a DANA development process. The central, eastern and northeastern parts of Spain are under the influence of the leading side of the ULL with the air masses from the south or southwest containing high humidity from the warm Mediterranean sea surface, which leads to the development of thick cloud bands and partly intense precipitation. Portugal is situated under the rearward side of the cut off DANA stage, which is the cold side with cold air cloud from the Atlantic or from developments west of the centre of the cut off low. In the schematics in the chapter “Typical appearance in satellite images”, non‑convective fibrous cloud fields on the rear side of the trough stage are also described, as they sometimes persist into later stages of development.

An inspection of all nine cases from 2023 to November 2024 confirms this description. Depending on slight differences in the relative position of the DANA centre to Portugal, these fibrous smaller cloud parts at the rear side can also be detected in some cases, as in the figures of the presented case.

Although the very heaviest, even catastrophic, rain is bound to the southern and eastern parts of Spain in the warm and humid air it should be noted that the convective cloud over Portugal together with local phenomena can sometimes also lead to damaging intense rain.

Meteorological Physical Background

Upper Level Lows are closed cyclonically circulating eddies in the middle and upper troposphere. They are sometimes also called "cold drops", because the air within an Upper Level Low is colder than in its surroundings.

The development of a typical Upper Level Low goes through four stages, during which a bottom of an upper trough is detached from the main stream, until it finally fills up or merges with another trough:

  1. Upper level trough
  2. Tear-off
  3. Cut-off
  4. Final stage

1. Upper Level Trough stage

The prerequisite of the forming of the Upper Level Low are unstable waves within the main stream, where the temperature wave is behind the geopotential wave.

  • There is cold advection within the trough and warm advection on the ridge of the geopotential wave.
  • The vertical axis of the trough has a backward-oriented inclination with height.
  • The amplitudes of the waves increase; the wavelenght can decrease.

Cyan: 500 hPa geopotential height, green: 500 hPa temperature

2. Tear-off stage

  • The amplitudes of the waves increases further.
  • The isohypses form an inverse omega-shape and the cold air flows into the middle of this omega.
  • Often at the same time the ridge behind the main upper trough continues to move eastward quicklier than the trough, appearing to "fall forward".
  • In the end of this stage the cold bottom of the trough is detached from the main stream.

upper_level_low

3. Cut-off stage

  • The bottom of the upper trough is completely detached from the main stream forming a closed circulation.
  • If there is a strong forward-falling ridge behind, it may also separate from the main stream and form an upper level high (a counterpart for the upper level low). This happens in most of the ULL cases.
  • The cold core of the Upper level Low warms up slowly because of the diabatic warming of the sinking clod air.
  • If a cold Upper Level Low is situated over a warm surface, convection arises within the core. This occurs especially over the Atlantic Ocean (Canarian Isles) and over the Mediterranean in summertime.
  • Another location for convection is ahead of the low within the area of a thickness ridge.

upper_level_low

4. Final stage

Within an Upper Level Low there is convection, unless the surface is very cold. The air near the surface is warm and the circulation is slowed down by the friction. The convection brings warm air and friction upwards. Consequently, the Upper Level Low weakens slowly.

  • In most cases the Upper Level Low merges with the main stream before it has completely dissolved by the convection. Usually a large trough in the main stream approaches from the rear and catches the upper level low.
  • The Upper Level Low can also merge with another Upper Level Low.

upper_level_low

For an example see Key Parameters.

If the Upper Level Low is far from the main stream, it can dissolve solely by convection. This kind of development occurs mostly in southern areas; in Europe they can be found over the Mediterranean.

Upper Level Lows can be divided into two classes according to their size and lifetime:

  • small lows with a lifetime of 2-4 days
  • big lows with a lifetime of 5-14 days

Big lows are slightly more common than small ones.

Note that over land an Upper Level Low can also form when a surface low of an extratropical cyclone disappears due to friction. This is just a late stage of a cyclone development and the upper low fills up relatively quickly.

Special investigation of DANA cases

Principally, the physics behind cut off processes are also applicable to DANA situations, but it is necessary to emphasize the location and circulation over the Iberian Peninsula. Because of the Mediterranean warm water the instability in the air mass on the leading side of the DANA system can be increased tremendously through the warm and humid air below and the cold dry air in the cold drop above. This can also be observed in figure 5 in the previous chapter.

Key Parameters

  • Height contours 500 hPa:
    In the initial stage there is an upper trough. The bottom of the trough forms an inverse omega shape and is detached from the main stream forming a separate low. In the final stage the low weakens and merges with another trough or low.
  • Temperature 500 hPa:
    The air within the Upper Level Low is colder than in the surroundings. The isotherms shows a life cycle similar to that of the geopotential.
  • Height contours 1000 hPa:
    Usually loose field with no remarkable features. In some cases some weak cyclonic circulation may appear.
  • Equivalent thickness:
    There is a thickness ridge ahead of the low and a trough or a distinct minimum behind or in the centre of the low.
  • Thermal front parameter:
    There are two baroclinic zones:
    • A frontal-like cloud band ahead of the low
    • A Baroclinic Boundary (see Baroclinic Boundary ) behind the low.
  • Potential vorticity:
    Within the Upper Level Low there is colder air with lower tropopause than in its surroundings. Consequently, in the area of the low there is a local maximum of PV.

Height contours and temperature 500 hPa

1. Trough stage

14 September 2005/06.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image; cyan: height contours 500 hPa, dark green: temperature 500 hPa

2. Tear-off stage

14 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image; cyan: height contours 500 hPa, dark green: temperature 500 hPa

3. Cut-off stage

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image; cyan: height contours 500 hPa, dark green: temperature 500 hPa

4. Final stage

16 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image; cyan: height contours 500 hPa, dark green: temperature 500 hPa

Height countours at 1000 hPa

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image; magenta: height contours 500 hPa, cyan: height contours 1000 hPa

Equivalent thickness and thermal frontal parameter

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image; green: equivalent thickness, blue: thermal frontal parameter

Potential vorticity

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 WV 6.2 image; magenta: height of PV=1 unit

Special investigation of DANA cases

As already mentioned, DANA situations do not differ in general from cut off processes, so the key parameters for the case of 27 October 2024 are not presented or repeated in this chapter; height contours can be seen in the earlier chapter “Cloud structures in satellite images” and further additional parameters will be presented in the following chapter “Parameters in vertical cross sections”.

Here only the cut off/DANA stage for the October 2024 example is presented with geopotential height at 300 hPa and thickness contours. The intensity of the cold drop directly above central and southern Spain is very typical for DANA situations. This image indicates again the differences in the atmosphere over the leading eastward part over Spain and the rearward part over Portugal. A vertical cross section in the following chapter will further clarify these differences.

Fig 6:
27 Oct 2024, 12UTC: cut off stage—DANA; IR; cyan: height contours at 300 hPa; green: thickness at 500/1000 hPa.

Typical Appearance In Vertical Cross Sections

  • Isentropes:
    Often there is a conditionally unstable stratification in the lower and middle troposphere, with isentropic values decreasing with height. Otherwise isentropes show a shape of a ridge with the isolines far from each other in the area of the Upper Level Low.
  • Relative Vorticity:
    Due to the cyclonic circulation within the Upper Level Low there is a maximum of relative vorticity.
  • Temperature Advection:
    The air within an Upper Level Low is colder than in the surroundings. Therefore, there is distinct cold advection ahead of the Upper Level Low, and warm advection behind it.
  • Potential Vorticity:
    There is a maximum of potential vorticity above the centre of the Upper Level Low.

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image; position of vertical cross section indicated

Relative vorticity

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Vertical cross section; black: isentropes (Thetae), blue: relative vorticity

Temperature advection

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Vertical cross section; black: isentropes (Thetae), red thin: temperature advection - CA, red thick: temperature advection - WA

Potential vorticity

15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Vertical cross section; black: isentropes (Thetae), dark green: potential vorticity

Special investigation of DANA cases

The typical atmospheric state in a DANA situation is illustrated here using isentropes, humidity, PV, TA, and omega in vertical cross sections. The figures below refer to the cut off stage of 27 October 2024 at 12 UTC.

Fig 7:
27 October 2024, 12 UTC. IR;
cyan: geopotential height contours at 300 hPa;
white: line of vertical cross sections

Fig 8:
27 October 2024, 12UTC: cut off stage—DANA.
First row left: PV>1.5 units; first row right: temperature advection;
2nd row left: vorticity advection; 2nd row right: humidity;
3rd row: omega.

All the parameters illustrate a very distinct situation which is typical for a cut off stage and the DANA stage over Spain:

There is a very large ridge of isentropes (θe) with two distinct regions with high gradients of contours at the boundaries; the PV anomaly reaches downward to 500 hPa; there is cold advection of dry air in the whole baroclinic zone at the rear, demonstrating the intensification of the cold drop (Gota Fría) at the rearward side (which is mainly over Portugal); there is no notable warm advection at the leading side, which indicates the stationarity of the DANA state; high humidity and very strong upward motion at the leading side (which is over southern and eastern Spain) corresponds to the development of a thick cloud band there. In the chapter on weather events, it can be seen that these cloud fields and cloud bands are connected with many and heavy rain events.

As already mentioned, these vertical cross sections also clearly illustrate the different physical and meteorological states of the atmosphere over Spain and Portugal.

Weather Events

  • The frontal cloud band on the leading edge of an Upper Level Low is usually thick enough to produce precipitation. In some cases there is also frontal cloudiness on the rearward edge. Within the cloud bands there are embedded Cbs, and therefore the precipitation is showery.
  • When the Upper Level Low is over land, there is a low cloud layer in the centre.
  • Over cold surface there is no convection, and therefore no showers occur.

Over Sea

Parameter Description
Precipitation
  • Moderate to heavy showery precipitation.
  • In the winter season snow and snow showers are possible
  • Also hail and thunderstorms can occur
Temperature
  • No changes on the surface
Wind (incl. gusts)
  • Strong gusts around Cbs
Other relevant information
  • Risk of moderate to severe icing and turbulence.

The case west of and over Spain from 13 May 2020 at 18 UTC can be used as an example for a cut-off low (at least partly) over sea. The IR image below shows the two cyclonically curved cloud bands around the cut-off low centre which is located to the west of Spain, over the ocean.

13 May 2020 at 18 UTC: IR; cyan lines: height contours 500 hPa.

beforeafter

Legend: 13 May 2019 at 18UTC: IR + synoptic measurements (above) + probability of moderate rain (Precipitting clouds PC - NWCSAF).
Note: for a larger SYNOP image click this link.

The cut-off low centre is mostly cloud free with some smaller cloud cells. The cloud bands at the cut-off low boundary are accompanied by precipitation, mostly in shower form. This corresponds with the fact that the probability of moderate precipitation from the NWCSAF is low.

beforeafter

beforeafter

Legend:
13 May 2020 at 18 UTC, IR ; superimposed:
1st row: Cloud Type (CT NWCSAF) (above) + Cloud Top Height (CTTH - NWCSAF) (below); 2nd row: Convective Rainfall Rate (CRR NWCSAF) (above) + Radar intensities from Opera radar system (below).

For identifying values for Cloud type (CT), Cloud type height (CTTH), precipitating clouds (PC), and Opera radar for any pixel in the images look into the legends. (link).

Over Land

Parameter Description
Precipitation In the summer season:
  • Moderate to heavy showery rain in cloud bands
  • Overcast low layered cloudiness with rain or drizzle, sometimes showers, in the centre
  • Possibly thunderstorms and hail
In the winter season:
  • Showery snow or rain within cloud bands
  • Low-layered clouds in the centre with possibility of snow, rain or drizzle
Temperature
  • No changes on the surface
Wind (incl. gusts)
  • Strong gusts around Cbs
Other relevant information
  • Risk of moderate to severe icing and turbulence.

The case from 6 May 2020 at 12 UTC, described in detail in the chapter "Appearance in satellite images" over Central Europe, can be used as an example for a cut-off low over land. The IR image below shows the two cyclonically curved cloud bands around the cut-off low centre which is at least partly filled with dense low-level cloud over Eastern Poland and Western Ukraine. More eastwards, cellular cold air cloud does exist in the mostly cloud free area.

6 May 2020 at12 UTC: IR; cyan lines: height contours 500 hPa.

beforeafter

Note: for a larger SYNOP image click this link.

The overcast part of the cut-off low over Eastern Poland and Western Ukraine show rain as well as showers and Cbs which are superimposed. East of this, there are isolated Cbs and thunderstorms. The probability of moderate precipitation computed by NWCSAF diagnoses very high values for the overcast part in the cut-off low centre.

beforeafter

beforeafter

Legend:
6 May 2020 at 12 UTC, IR ; superimposed:
u.l.: Cloud Type (CT NWCSAF); u.r.: Cloud Top Height (CTTH - NWCSAF); l.l.: Convective Rainfall Rate (CRR - NWCSAF); l.r.: Radar intensities from Opera radar system.

For identifying values for Cloud type (CT), Cloud type height (CTTH), precipitating clouds (PC), and Opera radar for any pixel in the images look into the legends. (link).

Special investigation of DANA cases

In the chapter “Weather events” for the CM “ULL”, a distinction between cases over land and cases over ocean is made. The case for “over the sea” shows a situation in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula between Portugal and Morocco. This case is not a representative DANA situation because the cut off process started already over the western or southwestern Atlantic while moving to the south in the direction of Morocco where the ULL is already cut off.

The figures below show synoptic observations and radar images from the Opera system. For further information the Dust RGB as well as the Sandwich product image is presented. The latter is especially interesting for detection of convective cells and their severity.

Trough stage

Fig 9:
26 October 2024, 00UTC: trough stage.
Top: IR, geopotential height at 300 hPa, synoptic observations; middle (in addition to top): Opera radar; bottom: Dust RGB, synoptic observations.

In the trough stage of this case most of the cloud system is at the leading side over northeastern to southeastern Spain. These clouds are to a high degree precipitating ice clouds, with many synoptic stations reporting rain. There are also some clouds over northwestern Spain and northern Portugal, which is at the rearward side of the trough. This area shows more mid-level cloud fields with only weak rain reported.

Tear off stage

Fig 10:
26 October 2024, 12 UTC: tear off stage.
Top: IR, geopotential height at 300 hPa, synoptic observations; second (in addition to top): Opera radar; third: Dust RGB, synoptic observations; bottom: Sandwich product, synoptic observations.

In this tear off stage, with the centre of the ULL over central Spain, band-like features have formed at both boundaries of the very large ULL with thicker cloud and more precipitation at the leading part over northeastern Spain. The centre of the ULL over central Spain is nearly filled with midlevel cellular cloud and there are no notable rain occurrences. The cloud band at the rear side from the middle of Portugal into southern Spain also shows some cells with thicker cloud and some rain events.

The development of two cloud bands at the baroclinic boundaries of a ULL in the tear off stage can be observed in several cases but quite often the band at the rear side dissolves, as occurs in this case.

Cut off stage

Fig 11:
27 October 2024, 12UTC: cut off stage.
Top: IR, geopotential height at 300 hPa, synoptic observations; second (in addition to top): Opera radar; third: Dust RGB, synoptic observations; bottom: Sandwich product, synoptic observations.

Between the tear off and cut off stages of this DANA case the cloudiness at the leading side, which covers the whole eastern part of Spain, has increased tremendously and there were widespread rain reports in this area. The rearward side, which is relevant for Portugal, has cleared up in large parts. The Dust RGB shows large areas with ice cloud and there is also a distinct radar signal within the eastern cloud band.

Renewed cut off stage after two days

As already mentioned, the DANA system then moved during the following two days southward to Morrocco and then backward again with even more intense cloud and rain, leading to weather warnings of the highest severity.

Fig 12:
29 October 2024, 12 UTC: cut off stage—DANA.
Top: IR, geopotential height at 300 hPa, synoptic observations; second (in addition to top): Opera radar; third: Dust RGB, synoptic observations; bottom: Sandwich product, synoptic observations.

These weather images represent the situation two days after the cut off DANA stage and after the movement back to the south of Spain. Intense cloud systems have also developed at the leading side of the very large system over southern and southeastern Spain, with nearly all synoptic stations reporting rain and large and thick convective cells. These can be identified especially clearly in the Sandwich product, with a mesoscale convective system (MCS) over the region of Valencia between approximately 05 and 09 UTC. Thunderstorms and intense rain were reported from nearly all stations in Andalusia, with the most intense reported from stations to the west of Valencia and north of Andalusia.

The weather situation at the time of the catastrophe

Fig 13:
29 October 2024, 18 UTC: cut off stage—DANA.
Top: IR, geopotential height at 300 hPa, synoptic observations; second (in addition to top): Opera radar; bottom: Dust RGB, synoptic observations.

This is the time when the weather catastrophe occurred in Valencia and all the panels reflect the extremely dangerous meteorological situation. At this time (18 UTC) it is possible to identify the V-shape of a second MCS that has been affecting the area of Valencia the whole afternoon.

Also remarkable is the rose-coloured area in the Dust RGB between the North African and southeastern Spanish coasts. It can be regarded as sign of Sahara dust, which is brought into the atmosphere through intense upward motion.

In addition to the images above an hourly loop over the whole day of 29 October shows clearly the link to two MCSs lasting around 6 hours each, the first one during the morning (05–10 UTC) moving westward and the second one in the afternoon (14–20 UTC).

In many scientific investigations of this catastrophe, it can be read that this DANA situation was extraordinarily intense but that also other local meteorological, hydrological and orographic conditions were significant in developing a severe meteorological state into an incredibly catastrophic situation.

References

General Meteorology and Basics

  • BOHR P., KATHE G., KNORR M., KURZ M. and LANGE K. - D. (1987): Allgemeine Meteorologie - Leitf?en f?r die Ausbildung im Deutschen Wetterdienst, 3. Auflage, Selbstverlag des Deutschen Wetterdienstes
  • CONWAY B. J., GERARD L., LABROUSSE J., LILJAS E., SENESI S., SUNDE J. and ZWATZ-MEISE V. (1996): COST78 Meteorology - Nowcasting, a survey of current knowledge, techniques and practice; Phase 1 report; Office for official publications of the European Communities
  • HOSKINS B. J., MCINTYRE M. E. and ROBERTSON A. W. (1985): On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps; Quart. J. R. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 111, p. 877 - 946
  • HOSKINS B. J. (1991): Towards a PV - Theta view of the general circulation; Tellus, Vol. 43 AB, p. 27 - 35
  • KOISTINEN J.: Lectures on Synoptic Meteorology in the University of Helsinki, unpublished paper
  • KURZ M. (1990): Synoptische Meteorologie - Leitf?en f?r die Ausbildung im Deutschen Wetterdienst; 2. Auflage, Selbstverlag des Deutschen Wetterdienstes

General Satellite Meteorology

  • BADER M. J., FORBES G. S., GRANT J. R., LILLEY R. B. E. and WATERS A. J. (1995): Images in weather forecasting - A practical guide for interpreting satellite and radar imagery; Cambridge University Press

Specific Satellite Meteorology

  • BILLING H., HAUPT J. and TONN W. (1983): Evolution of a hurricane-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea; Beitr. Phys. Atm., Vol. 56, p. 508 - 510
  • KEYSER D. and SHAPIRO M. A. (1986): A review of the structure and dynamics of upper level frontal zones; Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 114, p. 452 - 499
  • LILJEQUIST G. H. and CEHAK K. K. (1984): Allgemeine Meterorologie, 3. Auflage, Braunschweig Vieweg
  • MONK G. A. (1992): Synoptic and mesoscale analysis of intense mid-latitude cyclones, Met. Mag., Vol. 121, p. 269 - 283
  • PRICE J. D. and VAUGHAN G. (1993): The potential for stratosphere - troposphere exchange in cut - off - low systems; Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 119, p. 343 - 365
  • RASMUSSEN E. (1987): A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows; Tellus, Vol. 39A, p. 408 - 425
  • REED R. J. (1990): Advances in knowledge and understanding of extratropical cyclones during the past quarter century: an overview; in Extratropical Cyclones, The Erik Palmen Memorial Volume, Ed. Chester Newton and Eero O Holopainen, p. 27 - 45
  • SIMMONS A. J. and HOSKINS B. J. (1979): The downstream and upstream development of unstable baroclinic waves; J. Atmos. Sci., Vol. 36, p. 1239 - 1254
  • SMITH R. K. and ULRICH W. (1993): Vortex motion in relation to the absolute vorticity gradient of the vortex environment; Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, Vol. 119, p. 207 - 215