9th July 2004: 12UTC
High theta-E values are an indication for instability. A theta-E ridge or tongue is often the burst point for convective activity.
A pronounced theta-E maximum is found over Southeastern Europe indicating high danger for TS development (value of 333K!). The convergence and its instability are already reflected in IR10.8 by some Cbs.
9th July 2004: 18UTC
A ridge of very high theta-E values has shifted somewhat to northeast. The ridge is accompanied by an MCS. A value of 333K does assume that much precipitation is associated to this convective event.
10th July 2004: 00UTC
Over the Ukraine the IR-image shows bright clouds. The θE at 850 hPa shows high values with a local maximum of 333K. This maximum corresponds well with the convective clouds, heavy rain and thunderstorms.
10th July 2004: 06UTC
High θE values indicate widespread heavy precipitation accompanied with TS.
10th July 2004: 12UTC
High values of θE of 333 are found over the Carpathian Mountains where convection is about to start. These values assume that we will see a further and rapid development of cells along this mountain ridge.
10th July 2004: 18UTC
The previous observed small cells over Romania have seen further explosive development in the past 6 hours. Situated in a θE ridge with high values they are found over the Ukraine causing heavy TS.
11th July 2004: 00UTC
A large convective cell is observed over the Ukraine and Russia. The θE values have decreased slightly but still are high enough to strengthen the assumption of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
