2nd October 2007: 06UTC
In this set of images the total precipitation from the HIRLAM model is pictured. This first picture shows us the 6 hour forecast from output of 2 Ocober 00UTC model run. In blue lines we see the MSLP and a more closer looks shows dashed red lines that are marking the synoptic areas where convective rainfall is forecasted. The coloured areas depict the severity of the precipitation expected with a maximum over the Gulf of Biscay. The enhanced IR10.8 satellite images are also displaced for comparison. The orientation of the frontal system over Portugal and Spain and its associated rain can be seen in both images. Values up to 5 mm are expected
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 2 October 2008 06UTC
2nd October 2007: 12UTC
At 12UTC the diurnal heating is also seen back int he model where there is an increase of precipitaion forecasted for western Spain ranging up to 40 mm! An indication for this is also seen in the enhanced IR image where some reddish colours indicating the cold cloudtops are seen.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 2 October 2008 12UTC
2nd October 2007: 18UTC
The convection is not yet peaking but in the enhanced image a very intersting feature is seen in the form of a V-shaped storm in the province of Huelva. This feature and its associated heavy rainfall are perfectly being picked up by the model that shows the severity with values for rainfall up to 75 mm.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 2 October 2008 18UTC
3rd October 2007: 00UTC
With the frontal system over Spain and a developing wave (see below IR image) also the model precpitation gives some corresponding indcations to the precipitations. Except for eastern Spain where we in the enhanced IR image see the most reddish colours there seems to be quite an underestimation of the model.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 3 October 2008 00UTC
3rd October 2007: 06UTC
At this stage we are looking at the +6 hour forecast from the modelrun of 3 Otcober 0000UTC. With the wave turning into an occlusion (see below IR image) the most precipitation would be is correctly expected over Northern Portugal and Central Spain. Ahead of the front we have some convection in the warm sector where especially the reddish colours over Northeastern Spain do assume increased precipitation that tends to be underestimated by the model with values up to 5 mm.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 3 October 2008 06UTC
3rd October 2007: 12UTC
As a result of the increasing insolation we see some higher values for precipitation over Central Spain and to the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula close to the Pyrenees in the model. This latter region can be very well verified by the enhanced IR image that also shows some increased activity around this area. Towards central Spain the situation is more or less cloudfree. Tgis is the region in the cold air mass behind the front where at a later stage several open and closed cell convection will occur. So, it is a wrong assumption to speak about a model error in this case.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 3 October 2008 12UTC
3rd October 2007: 18UTC
Most of the precipitation is bound to the occlusion cloudband and the numerous showers that have developed behind the front inthe cold air. The corresponding signals to this are also seen in the model. Of ths coast of Valencia a larger MCS has developed. The potential for this increased precipiattion is also well reflected by the model.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 3 October 2008 18UTC
4th October 2007: 00UTC
Last image of this series also shows quite a clear corrsponding match between the IR image below and the corrsponding model forecast. Ahead of the front over the Mediterranean some increased level of convection is also well reflected in the model with values for precipitation up to 20 mm.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 4 October 2008 00UTC
