29th May 2005: 00UTC
For the development over central europe the study of the equivalent thickness and the thermal front parameter can be of use. At this timestep the model reflects the frontal band over Western Europe well with several TFP maxima. On the leading side a thickness ridge is seen over Eastern Germany which gives an indication to future possible convective development. Over Turkey and Greece no frontal features are seen.
29th May 2005: 06UTC
29th May 2005: 12UTC
The thickness ridge seen already 6 hours prior has become more pronouned and marks the location where the first CBs develop. The higher values (in this case 283K) are indicative for the warm sector.
29th May 2005: 18UTC
The thickness ridge has become even more pronouned and is found over Central Europe. It clearly marks the location where the convective cells develop.
30th May 2005: 00UTC
Less pronounced as previous a thickness ridge is still observed at the leading side of the front over Central Europe. A decrease in the number of convective cells is observed as night set in. Still at the leading edge some MCS are recognised.
30th May 2005: 06UTC
A small thickness ridge is still found over Poland. Associated an MCS is seen embedded into the forntal system.
30th May 2005: 12UTC
Daytime convection sets in and a larger difference in temperature is found which is reflected by large thickness ridge found on the leading edge of a still pronounced N-S aligned frontal system. The ridge is accompanied by several convective cells.
30th May 2005: 18UTC
By this time the supercells system covering Poland, the Czech Republic and Austria has formed. The cell lies on the leading edge of the front. No real distinct features are seen in the model relating to this cell. A thickness ridge is seen further to the east where still also some CBs are recognised.
31st May 2005: 00UTC
Most of the cells died out over the past hours. During the case study the frontal system shifted eastwards by some degrees. It is still well visible in IR imagery and so is it reflectance in the model by a strong TFP maximum. A small thickness ridge is still found on the leading edge over Russia. There embedded into the front some convective cells are recognised.
